October 26, 2006
The significance of two men kissing
Last night the extremists at the Federalist Society in NYC hosted a debate of sorts about the elections, and the potential policy ramifications if Dems take over the House and/or the Senate. Because I am a dork and an extremist, I attended with a few friends, and had the chance to meet John Fund and Jim Taranto of the Wall Street Journal, the surprisingly tall Jim Pinkerton, and Stormy Waters Ellis Henican (Sealab info here) who served (and well) as the token liberal/whipping boy.
Ordinarily Fed Soc debates are a better balanced; this was moreso a "discussion," with the exception of Henican, reminiscent of this "debate". Kudos to Henican for being what my father would call a "thinking liberal."
Despite the gay marriage decision in NJ yesterday, Henican predicted that gay marriage won't be the base-rallying issue it was for Republicans in 2004. Pinkerton had pointed to the decision as new evidence Democrats face what's essentially a systemic backlash: as novelty issues come to the dais, and as social "progress" introduces (and circulates) issues like stem cell research, gay marriage, etc., Dems are finding themselves at odds with a fundamentally center-right country.
It's hard to dismiss what will be a two-week long, viral response to the image of two men french kissing, as was featured yesterday on AP reports. It might not mean a vote for the serpentine Republican Tom Kean NJ, or one against Kean's equally serpentine opponent, but elections are fundamentally a marketing exercise, and this imagery cannot have been greeted as good news over at the DNC.
Posted by bill at 08:47 AM | Comments (1)
December 28, 2005
Hillary Clinton: She's a fighter
For giggles, I subscribed a while ago to Hillary Clinton's email list. Her emails are usually amusing and to me, make the woman seem all the more preposterous. Today I was treated to a message from Bill himself, saying he's "so proud of Hillary and her work in the Senate" blah blah blah blah blah blah and asking for donations. (It's all below the fold.) I didn't donate, but I enjoyed this line: "And I know something else: Hillary is a fighter."
Sure you do, Bill. She threw a lamp at you. Or maybe you heard about her assault on her limo driver. Or that her temper "terrified" staffers.
Dear Friend,
As Hillary's 2006 campaign prepares for a critical December 31st fundraising deadline, I'm writing to urge you to send a special year-end donation.
I am so proud of Hillary and her work in the Senate. Now I'm asking you to be sure she will be able to continue, and that she'll have the support she needs in the year ahead.
https://contribute.hillaryclinton.com
I've known from our 30 years together that Hillary has the ability to be a real leader. But even I've been impressed at how much she has done since she was elected: her hard work, her effectiveness, and her constant advocacy for the values we share.
Whether speaking out on the Senate floor about why this latest Congressional budget is so wrong for our country, calling for a new energy policy to move us closer to energy independence, or traveling to New Orleans to meet with families still waiting for homes - and hope - Hillary is a beacon of strength, intelligence, and generosity of spirit.
And I know something else: Hillary is a fighter. In the Senate, she is fighting to get this country going in a different direction. And she is prepared to fight back in next year's campaign. It's up to us to make sure she has the resources to do just that.
https://contribute.hillaryclinton.com
Please join me in giving Hillary the support she needs to win an important Democratic victory in New York next November.
Sincerely,
Bill Clinton
Posted by bill at 07:58 PM | Comments (1)
November 18, 2005
The Significance of New Jersey
Terence Samuel at The American Prospect offers an interesting thought piece on the relative importance of the recent NJ and VA gubernatorial elections. In this article Samuel argues that the loss in left-leaning New Jersey, and not conservative Virginia, should be more worrying to the GOP. Considering the New Jersey election, Samuel offers the following about Jon Corzine's victory: "the senator’s big win, with the old Democratic coalition intact and independents flocking to the camp, is very good news for Democrats." He may have a point, but earlier in the same article he offers what is perhaps the greatest hope (after gerrymandered Congressional districts) for the GOP in '06 and '08: "repudiation of one set of ideas and candidates does not lead necessarily to the embrace of other candidates."
The GOP is staggering under the weight of actually governing, but the Democratic party will have to take positive action to seize momentum. This is not 1994 with the parties reversed.
Posted by Audi Partem Alteram at 06:56 PM | Comments (0)
June 16, 2005
In a Post-(n/2)+1 World
From Social Security reform to confirmation of Presidential nominees, it seems the Senate just can't get things done like it used to. (Well, I suppose they do get certain measures passed now and then.)
In today's Golden Age of Filibusters, however, getting politically charged measures through the upper house just isn't realistic. There is, after all, only an 11 seat spread between the majority and minority positions. And that's simply not enough of a mandate to allow such tyrannies as setting a political agenda, confirming nominees, or other legislative duties once carried by simple majority.
And yet, what if that majority were to graduate from simple... to Super? The legislative consequences would plainly be dramatic (read: work would get done). But is it realistic? Indulge me in a brief saunter through this chimera...
To increase their Senate position to a filibuster-proof supermajority of 60 and thereby scratch the Dems' increasingly itchy filibuster finger, the GOP will need to pick up 5 net seats in 2006. I recently bounced this prospect off of Dr. Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, and creator of the much-gazed Crystal Ball, which provides analysis and predictions for major elections.
There are 33 Senate elections in 2006, 18 of which are for seats currently held by Democrats and people named Jim Jeffords. According to Center for Politics research, 8 of these Democrats are "moderately to very vulnerable" (6 of the 15 Republicans are given the same rating).
Per the Crystal Ball, these 8 most fertile GOP hunting grounds are as follows (2004 Bush vote share in parentheses):
Florida: Bill Nelson (52%)
Maryland: Open (43%)
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow (48%)
Minnesota: Open (48%)
North Dakota*: Kent Conrad (63%)
Nebraska: Ben Nelson (66%)
New Jersey**: Open (46%)
Washington: Maria Cantwell (46%)
* In play if GOP Governor John Hoeven runs
** In play if Senator Jon Corzine is elected governor
If Republicans can flip the seat in each of the three red states on the most vulnerable list, and pick up any two from Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Washington, they'll get to 60 (and scores from Hollywood will renew promises of emigration... I smell a tipping point). If one or more of the at-risk Republican seats should turn, however, there'll obviously need to be a corresponding cushion provided either by additional blue state poaching, or a surprise party change among the less vulnerable seats.
Is it far-fetched? Maybe a tad. Is it at least too early to get overly piqued about it? Okay, probably. But with stewards the likes of Howard Dean, Joe Biden, and Dick Durbin at the helm of the party's rhetorical ship, there's magic in the air.
Crystal Ball offers analysis and early predictions for each 2006 Senate race here.
Cross-posted at Suitably Flip.
Posted by Suitably Flip at 02:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
