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January 24, 2006
Sadr Power
Conflicting reports make it clear at least that Iraq's Mahdi Army leader Moqtada al-Sadr sees advantage to be gained from flirting with Iranian solidarity. The cleavages run counter to a firm alliance -- that is, the sort that would cause Sadr to order his milita into action in Iraq if Iran were struck by the West. First: Iran is not an Arab nation. Second: although the Shi'a are a powerful bloc in Iraq, it appears that those among them willing to destroy the government they have just helped create -- in order to step onto the wrong side of the line with Iran -- are in the minority.
Finally: I suspect Sadr is more interest in power than in principle. His future is far brighter as the anti-Chalabi in Iraq than it is as the cannon fodder of Iran ("we'll fight so you don't have to.") In order to maintain his position in a moment of fluidity, Sadr must become fluid -- tolerating vagueness and disjunct in his attributed statements, raising the possibility -- but by no means the certainty -- that he would order the Mahdi to join forces with Iran. Sadr has been playing a dangerous, double-dealing game for long enough to know that now is the time that practice may make perfect.
Posted by James G. Poulos at January 24, 2006 10:13 AM
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