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June 10, 2005
Tax Hikes: Time Bomb for Democrats
Matt Yglesias recognizes an important truth:
[H]ow will Democrats ever be able to raise taxes while remaining politically viable?... [Even] a reputably centrist brand of progressive politics... is going to require taxes as a share of the economy to be quite a bit higher. How to get that done is quite the political riddle. And it's worth pointing out that it's a riddle nobody's ever really solved.
(hat tip: Andrew Sullivan)
It's probably inevitable that taxes will rise in the next few years. For Republicans to refuse to countenance any increase in taxes is not responsible leadership (unless they suddenly start achieving miraculous spending cuts). We don't want to force smart fiscal conservatives to vote for the Democrats.
That said, as long as Republicans don't completely trash their anti-tax credentials by, say, embracing this tax-hiking Social Security "compromise," (hat tip: Audi Partem Alteram), they stand to benefit from resistance to tax hikes.
Once the tax hike kicks in, and once people start grumbling about it, Republicans can point to every spending program the Democrats propose and say "See that? That's the kind of thing that makes your taxes go up!"
On Social Security, the Republicans should draw a line. We want progressive indexation and personal accounts. We pledge to the American people not to raise the payroll tax rate. We pledge never to allow the payroll cap to rise unless the change is accompanied by personal accounts reform so that people can keep some of their money. We will not allow Social Security's tax-and-transfer scheme to take a bigger bite out of the economy. Those are our red lines. If we're in the minority in the future, we'll filibuster in defense of those red lines. If the Dems want to stick their fingers in their ears and sing show tunes this year, fine. When the red ink comes knocking, they'll come back to the negotiating table.
Toe that line, and we can't lose.
Posted by Good Samaritan at June 10, 2005 08:17 AM
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