« Contact Dick | Main | Morning Blend - Friday, June 17, 2005 »
June 16, 2005
In a Post-(n/2)+1 World
From Social Security reform to confirmation of Presidential nominees, it seems the Senate just can't get things done like it used to. (Well, I suppose they do get certain measures passed now and then.)
In today's Golden Age of Filibusters, however, getting politically charged measures through the upper house just isn't realistic. There is, after all, only an 11 seat spread between the majority and minority positions. And that's simply not enough of a mandate to allow such tyrannies as setting a political agenda, confirming nominees, or other legislative duties once carried by simple majority.
And yet, what if that majority were to graduate from simple... to Super? The legislative consequences would plainly be dramatic (read: work would get done). But is it realistic? Indulge me in a brief saunter through this chimera...
To increase their Senate position to a filibuster-proof supermajority of 60 and thereby scratch the Dems' increasingly itchy filibuster finger, the GOP will need to pick up 5 net seats in 2006. I recently bounced this prospect off of Dr. Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, and creator of the much-gazed Crystal Ball, which provides analysis and predictions for major elections.
There are 33 Senate elections in 2006, 18 of which are for seats currently held by Democrats and people named Jim Jeffords. According to Center for Politics research, 8 of these Democrats are "moderately to very vulnerable" (6 of the 15 Republicans are given the same rating).
Per the Crystal Ball, these 8 most fertile GOP hunting grounds are as follows (2004 Bush vote share in parentheses):
Florida: Bill Nelson (52%)
Maryland: Open (43%)
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow (48%)
Minnesota: Open (48%)
North Dakota*: Kent Conrad (63%)
Nebraska: Ben Nelson (66%)
New Jersey**: Open (46%)
Washington: Maria Cantwell (46%)
* In play if GOP Governor John Hoeven runs
** In play if Senator Jon Corzine is elected governor
If Republicans can flip the seat in each of the three red states on the most vulnerable list, and pick up any two from Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Washington, they'll get to 60 (and scores from Hollywood will renew promises of emigration... I smell a tipping point). If one or more of the at-risk Republican seats should turn, however, there'll obviously need to be a corresponding cushion provided either by additional blue state poaching, or a surprise party change among the less vulnerable seats.
Is it far-fetched? Maybe a tad. Is it at least too early to get overly piqued about it? Okay, probably. But with stewards the likes of Howard Dean, Joe Biden, and Dick Durbin at the helm of the party's rhetorical ship, there's magic in the air.
Crystal Ball offers analysis and early predictions for each 2006 Senate race here.
Cross-posted at Suitably Flip.
Posted by Suitably Flip at June 16, 2005 02:09 PM
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.citizen-journal.net/cgi-bin/mt-316/mt-tb.cgi/176
