« Contact Dick | Main | Morning Blend - Friday, June 17, 2005 »
June 16, 2005
In a Post-(n/2)+1 World
From Social Security reform to confirmation of Presidential nominees, it seems the Senate just can't get things done like it used to. (Well, I suppose they do get certain measures passed now and then.)
In today's Golden Age of Filibusters, however, getting politically charged measures through the upper house just isn't realistic. There is, after all, only an 11 seat spread between the majority and minority positions. And that's simply not enough of a mandate to allow such tyrannies as setting a political agenda, confirming nominees, or other legislative duties once carried by simple majority.
And yet, what if that majority were to graduate from simple... to Super? The legislative consequences would plainly be dramatic (read: work would get done). But is it realistic? Indulge me in a brief saunter through this chimera...
To increase their Senate position to a filibuster-proof supermajority of 60 and thereby scratch the Dems' increasingly itchy filibuster finger, the GOP will need to pick up 5 net seats in 2006. I recently bounced this prospect off of Dr. Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, and creator of the much-gazed Crystal Ball, which provides analysis and predictions for major elections.
There are 33 Senate elections in 2006, 18 of which are for seats currently held by Democrats and people named Jim Jeffords. According to Center for Politics research, 8 of these Democrats are "moderately to very vulnerable" (6 of the 15 Republicans are given the same rating).
Per the Crystal Ball, these 8 most fertile GOP hunting grounds are as follows (2004 Bush vote share in parentheses):
Florida: Bill Nelson (52%)
Maryland: Open (43%)
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow (48%)
Minnesota: Open (48%)
North Dakota*: Kent Conrad (63%)
Nebraska: Ben Nelson (66%)
New Jersey**: Open (46%)
Washington: Maria Cantwell (46%)
* In play if GOP Governor John Hoeven runs
** In play if Senator Jon Corzine is elected governor
If Republicans can flip the seat in each of the three red states on the most vulnerable list, and pick up any two from Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Washington, they'll get to 60 (and scores from Hollywood will renew promises of emigration... I smell a tipping point). If one or more of the at-risk Republican seats should turn, however, there'll obviously need to be a corresponding cushion provided either by additional blue state poaching, or a surprise party change among the less vulnerable seats.
Is it far-fetched? Maybe a tad. Is it at least too early to get overly piqued about it? Okay, probably. But with stewards the likes of Howard Dean, Joe Biden, and Dick Durbin at the helm of the party's rhetorical ship, there's magic in the air.
Crystal Ball offers analysis and early predictions for each 2006 Senate race here.
Cross-posted at Suitably Flip.
Posted by Suitably Flip at June 16, 2005 02:09 PM
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.citizen-journal.net/cgi-bin/mt-316/mt-tb.cgi/176
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference In a Post-(n/2)+1 World:
» gambling casino online from gambling casino online
uk online casino is an excellentinfo. [Read More]
Tracked on March 8, 2006 12:20 AM
» phentermine from phentermine
phentermine [Read More]
Tracked on April 16, 2006 12:03 PM
» online art degree from online art degree
online art degree [Read More]
Tracked on April 27, 2006 07:23 AM
» cricket from cricket
cricket [Read More]
Tracked on June 10, 2006 02:13 PM
» phentrmine from phentrmine
phentrmine [Read More]
Tracked on July 19, 2006 08:04 AM
» Refinance Loans from Refinance Loans
Loans, Free Ringtones [Read More]
Tracked on October 4, 2006 02:32 AM
» mike hansen from mike hansen
You find different colours on 'arth! [Read More]
Tracked on January 7, 2007 05:43 PM
» upskirt school from spy cam upskirt
anime ecchi [Read More]
Tracked on January 12, 2007 11:22 AM
» indian fucked from worlds fastest indian movie
adult interracial animation [Read More]
Tracked on January 12, 2007 12:29 PM
» sex kitten from cheerleader lesbians having sex
horse sex pegs [Read More]
Tracked on January 23, 2007 10:15 AM
» anime nude sailor moon from busty anime
pantyhose and heels [Read More]
Tracked on January 23, 2007 11:25 AM
» anal pissing sex from girl pissing in males mouth
gay interracial room sex [Read More]
Tracked on January 23, 2007 12:02 PM
» business loan small woman from business loan small woman
business loan small woman [Read More]
Tracked on January 24, 2007 08:42 AM
» spring break gang bang from free gang bang porno
british shemales chloroform rape pissing indian woman [Read More]
Tracked on February 10, 2007 08:48 AM
» mother son fuck sex from mother cum
ebony sample vids audios mother fucker moms first gang bang [Read More]
Tracked on February 10, 2007 09:15 AM
» free lesbian fuck free orgy from clip of lesbians
anime sex pics wife cunt interracial gang bang pictures [Read More]
Tracked on February 15, 2007 02:32 PM
» big cock anal from adrianna sage sauna big cock
elephant sex forced horse sex milf sex with teen [Read More]
Tracked on February 15, 2007 05:40 PM
» swingers free movies from free hardcore fucking movie clips
masturbating girls young asian lesbian fucking man to man cum shots [Read More]
Tracked on February 15, 2007 10:34 PM
» anime video clips from anime bukkake
asian sex trip trans bondagetrans bondage [Read More]
Tracked on February 26, 2007 12:57 AM
» whores chubby plump woman from hot chubby women fucked
femail group sex [Read More]
Tracked on February 27, 2007 12:40 AM
» bdsm female story library from ashley renee + bdsm
sexy indian 4 u com [Read More]
Tracked on March 14, 2007 12:34 PM
» sperm chubby bbw plump from free facials asian chubby hairy
milf cruiser angela [Read More]
Tracked on March 15, 2007 06:08 PM
» incest porn from incest porn
incest porn [Read More]
Tracked on March 26, 2007 01:35 PM
» fantasy rape porn from erotica rape
teen thong [Read More]
Tracked on May 14, 2007 09:25 AM
» free cartoon shemales from fuck hardcore shemale
redheads fucking [Read More]
Tracked on May 14, 2007 05:09 PM
» incest clip from nifty gay incest stories
gang trans [Read More]
Tracked on May 14, 2007 05:41 PM
» free outdoors voyeur pissing from pissing female
amy reid hardcore licking tits [Read More]
Tracked on May 15, 2007 02:07 PM
» Bowler from Gaige Caban
TV host Oprah Winfrey gives audience members $1,000 (£526) each to donate to a charitable cause. [Read More]
Tracked on May 25, 2007 08:48 PM
» Judkins from Solomon Ventura
Singer George Michael lends the piano on which John Lennon wrote Imagine to an anti-war exhibition. [Read More]
Tracked on May 26, 2007 01:13 AM
» Bowles from Damian Salazar
Pioneering screenwriter Nigel Kneale, best known for the Quatermass TV serials and films, dies aged 84. [Read More]
Tracked on June 5, 2007 08:28 PM
» Bowles from Damian Salazar
Pioneering screenwriter Nigel Kneale, best known for the Quatermass TV serials and films, dies aged 84. [Read More]
Tracked on June 5, 2007 08:28 PM
» Roney from Connor Bronson
William Styron, whose Holocaust novel Sophie's Choice became a film and an opera, has died, aged 81. [Read More]
Tracked on June 6, 2007 04:08 AM
» Hamm from Aydan Cormier
Borat creator Sacha Baron Cohen reportedly signs a $42.5m (£22m) film deal starring his character Bruno. [Read More]
Tracked on June 22, 2007 01:50 PM
» Farrell from Nathanial Adam
Veteran actor William Franklyn, known for voicing the 1960s Schweppes TV adverts, dies aged 81. [Read More]
Tracked on June 22, 2007 04:34 PM
» Barr from Raven Zarate
The first stage of a £150m investment in regional museums is praised for boosting visitor numbers. [Read More]
Tracked on June 22, 2007 06:02 PM
» Ainsworth from Riley Barksdale
Veteran game show host Bob Barker is stepping down from hosting The Price is Right after 35 years. [Read More]
Tracked on June 23, 2007 11:33 AM
» Laflamme from Elliott Peterman
Pioneering screenwriter Nigel Kneale, best known for the Quatermass TV serials and films, dies aged 84. [Read More]
Tracked on June 28, 2007 12:38 AM
» Dancy from Ean Irons
The Red Hot Chili Peppers are leading the way at this years MTV Europe music awards with four nominations. [Read More]
Tracked on June 28, 2007 02:21 AM
» Freund from Nikolas Hyman
The judge who put coded messages in his Da Vinci Code plagiarism trial ruling has written another. [Read More]
Tracked on June 28, 2007 05:41 AM
» Muir from Aditya Loving
Veteran game show host Bob Barker is stepping down from hosting The Price is Right after 35 years. [Read More]
Tracked on June 28, 2007 04:01 PM
» Free asian porn trailer. from Porn watch trailer for free.
Free porn cartoon trailer. Scat ass porn free trailer. Trailer porn free. [Read More]
Tracked on July 20, 2007 12:52 PM
» Wester from Shane Wiles
Record company EMI sign a deal with the estate of crooner Dean Martin to use the singer's likeness. [Read More]
Tracked on July 25, 2007 06:36 PM
» Deboer from Alexandro Gauthier
The first stage of a £150m investment in regional museums is praised for boosting visitor numbers. [Read More]
Tracked on July 25, 2007 08:31 PM
» Halcomb from Jovani Barba
The judge who put coded messages in his Da Vinci Code plagiarism trial ruling has written another. [Read More]
Tracked on July 26, 2007 04:40 AM
» Guerin from Francisco Fredericks
Alec Baldwin asks for his voice to be removed from an "unfair" documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger. [Read More]
Tracked on July 31, 2007 10:46 AM
» Dillard from Jett Heller
Alec Baldwin asks for his voice to be removed from an "unfair" documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger. [Read More]
Tracked on July 31, 2007 02:06 PM
» Crum from Corey Webster
The judge who put coded messages in his Da Vinci Code plagiarism trial ruling has written another. [Read More]
Tracked on August 17, 2007 12:56 AM
» Livingston from Adriel Escobedo
Jonathan Ross is dubbed "risque" by Ofcom but not in breach of rules over an interview with David Cameron. [Read More]
Tracked on August 17, 2007 06:16 AM
» Nason from Ryder Lin
The Red Hot Chili Peppers are leading the way at this years MTV Europe music awards with four nominations. [Read More]
Tracked on August 17, 2007 06:20 AM
» Tellez from Joey Bundy
Veteran game show host Bob Barker is stepping down from hosting The Price is Right after 35 years. [Read More]
Tracked on August 17, 2007 10:14 AM
» Compton from Antonio Meacham
Jonathan Ross is dubbed "risque" by Ofcom but not in breach of rules over an interview with David Cameron. [Read More]
Tracked on August 17, 2007 03:49 PM
» Cheap phentermine. from Buy phentermine order cheap online.
Cheap phentermine. Guestcity phentermine cheap phentermine. [Read More]
Tracked on October 6, 2007 01:21 AM
» Ephedra. from Ephedra dangers.
Ephedra yellow jackets. Wyoming ephedra attorney. Stacker 2 with ephedra. Ephedra pills. Ephedra appeite suppress. Ephedra dangers. [Read More]
Tracked on February 28, 2008 03:33 PM
» Percocet. from Percocet.
Potent lortab percocet darvon. Percocet. [Read More]
Tracked on April 24, 2008 12:16 PM
Comments
Post a comment
Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)
