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June 10, 2005
Doubt and the Limitations of Power
Pundits, voters and legislators are sending increasingly strong signals that Social Security reform will not go forward unless private accounts are taken off the table. Protestations about the rightness of private accounts or the duplicity of Democratic legislators is wasteful. There is a growing chorus, much of it on the Right, stating that Social Security reform as President Bush has defined it will not happen any time soon.
Solidly pro-Bush pundits are giving voice to their frustration with the lack of progress toward reform, and some are questioning whether the Republican Party has not gotten too far ahead of public opinion on this issue. Venting his frustration at President Bush's ambitious attempt to reform Social Security, Andrew Ferguson observes: "The difficulties he has encountered in persuading the public to go along with him might strike a prudent man as a warning that he's pushing things a little too far. But prudence--like caution, diffidence, a sense of limits--was a quality that distinguished yesterday's conservatism, not today's." Larry Kudlow notes: "The potential for high-minded policy reforms to fix entitlements and spur growth and prosperity has degenerated into a hopeless morass of name-calling, scandal-mongering, political-bludgeoning, and relationship-breaking". Kudlow goes on to ask: "Is the White House and its congressional allies selling policy reforms that voters simply are not buying?" These pundits have been realistic enough to acknowledge the inherent limitation of politics: the more significant the change to be undertaken, the more broad-based the support that will be needed. Recognizing that the support is not there, they council reflection, and perhaps a reevaluation of goals.
This is usually the point at which my critics on this site will jump up and down and scream for numbers, and so we move on to the voters. A Washington Post-ABC News poll taken from June 2 – June 5 reveals the degree to which the Social Security issue has been adequately communicated to voters, and what they think of the issue (there were 1002 respondents to the survey, 30% identified themselves as Democrats, 31% as Republicans and 34% as Independents). Asked “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling Social Security?” 34% approved, while 62% disapproved. The approval rate for this question represents a 12 point drop from the results of a June 3, 2001 survey, and the disapproval rate represents a 22 point increase from the same survey (the percentage of those with no opinion fell from 14% for the June 2001 survey to 4% for the June 2005 survey). Asked “Based on what you know about Bush’s proposals, do you think they would or would not improve the long-term financial stability of the Social Security system?” 32% responded that Bush’s proposals would improve the financial stability of Social Security, while 63% responded that they would not. Those who hope that the public will blame Democrats for the lack of progress on solving the nation’s problems should consider that 67% of respondents consider Republicans to blame for a lack of progress on those problems, with only 13% blaming Democrats and 17% blaming both parties equally. In short, despite the exhaustive efforts of President Bush and many Republican lawmakers, the public is not with them on this issue.
Republican legislators have been grappling unsuccessfully with the issue of Social Security reform. Two senior Republicans on the Finance Committee have adopted a more pragmatic approach to Social Security reform. Senator Charles Grassley, Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, has stated a preference to work on the issue of solvency before addressing private accounts. Senator Orrin Hatch, the second-ranking Republican on the Finance committee, has said of legislation including private accounts: "I don't think we're going to get it", and "We can't get even one Democrat, and some Republicans won't go along either." Senator Olympia Snowe, a Republican who has been openly critical of Social Security reform, has said this on the subject: "Social Security became the bedrock of support for seniors in my state precisely because it's defined and guaranteed", and "What cost and what risk is it worth to erode the guaranteed benefit?"
I don’t suggest any solution here. But the evidence is growing that Republicans are beginning to reconsider just what can be done without either the support of the public or help from their colleagues across the aisle.
Posted by Audi Partem Alteram at June 10, 2005 08:01 PM
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