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Next Steps for the Transformational Agenda

Posted by: Good Samaritan
on April 25, 2005 @ 10:15 AM EST

As Iraq's political scene starts to look like that of a normal country, what comes next for US foreign policy? Bush said in the first debate, "We've climbed the mighty mountain. I see the valley below, and it's a valley of peace." Yet the emphasis on liberation as the rationale, first for the Iraq War, then, with Bush's Second Inaugural, for US foreign policy in general, logically should motivate a more ambitious and turbulent agenda. How does Bush hope to negotiate the contradiction between America's desire and need for peace, and the risks and demands of his forward strategy for freedom?

Victor Davis Hanson's latest essay, "Winning the War," is part retrospective, part strategizing for the future. VDH argues cogently for a continuation of the muscular foreign policy of the last four years, but he is ignoring the manpower constraint. Since we don't have the troops to liberate Iran, Burma, North Korea and Zimbabwe by force, our methods will have to change. Force is costly, but the credible threat of force is cheap. The credible threat of force rests on unused capacity and recognized, predictable procedure, i.e. international law. We need to give the military time to recover; meanwhile, Bush's democratizing ideals need to be infused into international law. That's why the Bush nominees matter: We need John Bolton to humiliate dictators at the UN and Paul Wolfowitz to make democratization part of the World Bank's development agenda.

Yet the most important foreign policy may be a domestic policy: we should reform Social Security so as to raise the savings rate. Reducing our dependence on foreign oil is a dangerous chimera, but we can reduce our dependence on foreign capital.


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Replies: 2 Comments

Posted by: Nathan Smith On Monday, April 25th

Well, point taken, but.

Think about a police force. They don't have the force to stop everyone who has an inclination to commit a crime. But because they have the credible threat of force, most people who have the urge to commit a crime refrain from doing so out of fear. The police have the resources to prosecute those who commit crimes anyway.

The police can offer a credible threat of force because they operate according to rules. People know the rules governing when the police will act, and they internalize the rules.

After 1991, there seemed to be a clear set of rules: the world would punish any breach of borders. That rule had its faults, but there was a generalized credible threat of force protecting all the world's borders.

What are the rules that govern the use of US force now? Say what you will, they're not very clear. That undermines the police principle. We need to restore it, at some point, on a different basis. Whether you want to call that "international law" or not is up to you.

Posted by: scooter On Monday, April 25th

I'm surprised you speak in terms of "international law" - Until there is an international government, there is no "international law." Treaties are agreements; the UN is advisory, at best. I agree with you inasmuch as you see Iraq as one battleground in a larger fight, but force, and the threat of it, are the only 2 ingredients that mean anything.


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