Citizen Journal Blog

One of the most intellectually lazy positions in modern politics is that you have a winning message but only need to better communicate it. Undeniably, this is sometimes true. But oftentimes, this is the bleated cry of those desperate to believe that somehow, despite significant evidence to the contrary, the people are not rejecting the idea, but are instead rejecting the packaging of the idea. Democrats wail that there is a progressive majority in this country begging to be led to leftist nirvana, social conservatives howl that children cling just as tightly to tradition as their parents, and now advocates of Social Security reform can be heard screaming to the heavens that people support reform; in all three cases, this is little more than wishful thinking. Support for reform is falling across the board, and young people especially are souring on the idea. This isn�t the result of madness; this is the logical result of Americans analyzing the concept of reform against the backdrop of their own worldview. Americans are frightened of risk, and it is this fear that drives them to see the current incarnation of Social Security as something to be maintained. As a recent article in Slate put it: �In times of volatility, insurance�a financial arrangement that guarantees certain minimum payments in certain eventualities�becomes more valuable, not less valuable.� Let�s have the courage to admit that the broad outlines of reform that have been suggested so far don�t have traction with the public, and remove the voices of reform advocates from the bleating chorus of the politically tone-deaf.

Replies: 3 Comments

Posted by: Bill On Monday, April 4th

I don't think it's intellectually lazy so much as it's dishonest; it's the ultimate revisionism in the political arena. My guess (uneducated tho it may be in such things) is that Bush will have to survive some blips but in the end, like so many of his ideas, his persistence will pay dividends.

Posted by: Nathan_Smith@ksg03.harvard.edu">Nathan Smith On Monday, April 4th

From your link:

In February, people age 18-29 favored the idea of private accounts by a 66%-19% margin. Today, just 49% favor private accounts, while 25% are opposed, and nearly as many (26%) say they don't know how they feel about the issue.

That's still a large plurality of young people supporting private accounts.

Or look at this:

Overall, people who have heard a lot about the plan oppose it by 52%-41%, while those who have heard little or nothing favor it by a 47% to 30% margin.

This pattern is significant even when age is taken into account. In particular, people under age 30 who have heard a lot about the proposal are more than twice as likely as their less engaged peers to oppose the idea (45% vs.19%).

And yet 46% of young people who have heard a lot support private accounts-- still a plurality.

Bear in mind, too, that this is only one of many polls. Much depends on the wording of questions. This poll shows that support has risen.

What the negative press coverage of polling tends to obscure is that, if support is falling, it began at majority or plurality levels and remains at majority or plurality levels. This bit of context is crucial.

Posted by: Nathan Smith On Monday, April 4th

Can you link to a poll which shows that a majority of people are opposed to reform? In the polls I've seen, a majority of people think people should be able to channel payroll taxes into private accounts.

I don't see any good reason for surrender.

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